The selloff in Crypto and equity continues for last several weeks. At this point, I think equity is over and headed to downtrend for at least next five years, but bitcoin will be the winner, and head up to $100,000 in next 5 years. But I am not sure other crypto, mostly will go to zero. There will be several comes back. Bitcoin is the one to go for now. The uptrend might be a slow process, but it's better than any other alternatives.

Today bitcoin offers another buying opportunity if you miss the entry at earlier February, and it will go to at least $14000 to $16000 in earlier March.  You won't see Bitcoin below $10,000 for a few months from now. Get it and enjoy the gain.

The selloff in Crypto todays is retest of last Friday, and normal volatility for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency. There is no reason to panic and ne worried. If you are not used to this volatility, probably cryptocurrency trading is not for you. I still think this is a great opportunity to buy for 2018, and Bitcoin can rebounce to $15,000-$20,000 in next month or two, and much higher in the summer and Fall. If Bitcoin drops to below $5000, I might change my view for all time top of $80,000/$100,000 this year. So far everything is normal even though the selloff is slightly more intense than what I thought.

The sell off of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrency today is actual the best buying opportunities for 2018. I expect bitcoin will rebounce from here and reach $30,000 around May, and possibly $80,000/$100,000 in the summer. There is still time to get into bitcoin now, and start to put a few hundred or a few thousand, you will get surprise profit in a few months.

I have been expecting some kind of selloff  August or September, but I am still amazed by the panic action in equity this Monday.  I am buying into the selloff Monday morning and already make big gain on it. I expect the morning low will be held for at least one month or two,  market will bounce in next few days with some ups and downs.  My upside target for S&P 500 is at least 2000 by next week or later this week, and possible go to 2030 sometimes next week.

There are a lot of headline about Monday morning's flash crash. Actually this kind of action happens a lot of time in the past. The most recent one is August 2011, May 2010. Going back to old days, it happened in January 2008, April 2000, and August 1998.  All these cases the market bounces back big in a few weeks even with some twists and turns.

Last week equity market's pullback and volatility lasted only three days, and did the usual rally into resistance. I don't expect too much movement this week,  S&P 500 possibly will pullback to 2070 sometimes by middle next week.   The big movement might not happen until later August and earlier September.

Now market is very flat, not much activities. I can have time to do more research and watch closely for several stocks to get better trade setup for next big profit.  Only one week's quiet time, and I will wait for the next big action later August.

Even with today's big rally, I still have the same view as before that this rally will be sold. I expect S&P 500 will pullback again this time to 2030/2040 possibly by next week. There will always be some rally in between, and I will short it again.

For now I think the six year's rally from 2009 ends this summer. The whole market tops out this time, so in the next few years, the big money will be made on the short side.  Previous I thought S&P 500 might be able to get to 2300/2400. Now I think that might be too much a stretch, and the market price action give more topping signal than another big leg up at this time. There will be tremendous opportunities on the way down.

I see some good trade ideas developing now, and this time it could turn into some small fortunate. A few more days I will be able to get it.

All the action later last week confirmed my intuition that last week's bounce can't be trusted, and next downside action starts again this week. I expect this downside will be stronger than the one in later June/earlier July, and it could last two to three weeks. The best case downside target for S&P 500 is around 2010/2030, and it can drop more than 200 points if it's deeper correction.  There could be some bounces in between, but the strategy will be shorting every bounce for next few weeks.

Crude oil can't hold to $50, and for now I can't see how low it can go, could be below $40.  Interest rate will start to go down again with bond price up. Dollar will strength again with a short pullback last week. And gold finally come down to multi year low.  Equity market is the area I have the best edge and more easier to master. I am very excited to see how the next pullback will play out finally, or it could also mean another great buying opportunity before anyone can see it.

It's going to be fun and volatile month, and I love this kind of action which means a lot of trading opportunity and a lot of money could be made.

There are more bearish view now than before, from contrarian point of view, it could mean other way. I am a little bit hesitate now than earlier today.

There is a lot of movement in equity last few days, with straight down and up.   I expect a little bit more bounce in near term with some back and forth.  S&P 500 might be able to bounce back to 2110 sometimes next week.  Small cap index underperformed recently with deeper downside and litter bounce, and this underperformance can last a while longer.

I grow more cautious recently with the sale off last week, and it feels somewhat different to the ones in last few months. Even with the bounce I won't be able to trust it long. There will be some volatility for the rest of the summer, and August will not be a slow month this time. I see several great set up for some trades next month, and another money making opportunity is coming. So now I will wait for the price action in next few days to confirm it.

What a difference with only one week. Equity has another V-shaped bounce with Nasdaq going to new high. I think this bounce still has leg, but the next leg up will be much narrower. There will be some pullback this week, but any pullback will be bought, and any more meaningful upside will be sold.  I will use 2110 to 2140 as the range for S&P500 this week.

With technology stocks going up so quickly last week, it's difficult to find any better entry points at this time. If you want to chase, facebook FB is the stock I think still has plenty room to run.  I have $110-$115 as the upside target for it.   There is also some stock in my sell list, netflix and amazon has been running too high in last few months, and I will look for some opportunity to buy puts on it.

Even with equity's quick bounce last week, oil and euro has been down for the week. I think crude oil should be able to find some support around $50 at this time, and it's ready to bounce to at least middle 50's. Euro should also be able to bounce, but I don't have strong view on it.

I am amazed by the market's intraday swing these two days.  The high volatility will last for a few more days and weeks. In short term, S&P 500 might be able to bounce to 2090/2100, but once it gets there I still think it will pull back to below 2040 sometimes before the end of July. Maybe at that time equity market will finally bottom and can get sustained bounce. So for now I will short when ES go to 2090, and buy it when it drops to 2030/2040.  It's trader's market for now.

Great, this is exactly the kind of action I have been looking for since the start of June, and finally the equity market has some volatility.  I don't care if it's because Greece or anything else,  the price action, the indicator tell me that market need to go down, so I stick with my own analysis to short the market and buy puts with every bounce last week.

It's a good day with great profit, and all of my accounts go to new high.   I put some fresh money in earlier June, and it's up more than 50% in one month.  One of my biggest clients is up more than 15% today.  Now I covered all of my index future shorts,  index puts and several individual stocks puts. It's time to look for another idea.

Market is getting closer to be oversold by now, and some kind of bounce will kick in next few days.
I will use range 2050/2060 to 2090/2100 for S&P 500 next few days . I did some buying at the end of day today, and will try to add more if it's down open tomorrow.  It may take a little longer for index to finally bottomed out. But there will be some great volatility for trade next few weeks.  At the same time I will try to work on some long list for individual stocks.  Market finally come to the level I feel comfortable to add more long exposure.

The bounce from last week is stronger than what I had expected.  And now I still think equity will pullback later this week. This time maybe we finally get some more serious correction, with S&P 500 down to 2040. It may also last longer than three or five days.
Market needs the final washout to change leadership,  build the base for next powerful rally. I still think it will happen.

Last week S&P 500 traded in the range of 2070 to 2110.  I expect the same for equity this week.  S&P 500 is oversold enough to have another bounce now.   I have the same view as before, if it goes to 2100-2110, it will be another opportunity to short against.  I still expect the final downside target around 2040/2050, but it probably won't happen until next week. So for now, I will wait for the  bounce to play out.

The saleoff since middle May is so shallow, and equity just can't sell. So as long as the downside target meet, it will be really good buying opportunity for a few months.

S&P 500 finally broke down to 2070 range today. The selling is so slow last few days, and equity index is already getting oversold.  It looks like it will be ready for some short term oversold bounce.  I am not expect too much movement in either direction. If S&P500 can bounce to 2095/2105, it will be another short opportunity.

I still keep S&P 500 downside target around 2040/2050.  If it can't get there this week, it will get there later June. I won't turn bullish until I see this price.  The standard way is to have some panic selling to build the base, and then big rally can gain momentum.  If there is no more selling, the upside will be very limited.

Even equity index kept bouncing back and forth last week,  I still have the same view as before. The final 5% correction will start this week, and last about three weeks or more.  My downside target is 2070 for S&P 500 this week, and 2040/2050 in the middle of June,  possibly down to 2000 if the correction gets deeper.   There will be a lot of volatility in next few weeks, and it also means a lot of opportunity.  Finally it's the time to make some big money, and It's the time to turn your $200 into $1000 in a few weeks.  So buy equity puts will pay off next few weeks.  Try spy, QQQ July or June puts, and wait for the real sale-off in one or two weeks.

Now there is a great setup for several trades.  If you catch it you can make a small fortune. This kind of opportunity doesn't happen very often, and the courage to ride the whole trade is even less.  For now I keep it to myself, and won't reveal it for free.  I will post it next few weeks when it plays out.

Equity market did exactly what I expected since last week.  I still have the same view as before. This pullback will be different from last few months, and it won't bounce back immediately after two or three days.  It's the start of 5% correction, and it may last two to three weeks.  My downside target for S&P 500 is around 2040, and it will probably get there earlier to mid June.  For slightly deeper correction, it's also possible for S&P 500 to reach 2000-2020 before the correction to be over.

About 100 points pullback means nothing for equity considering how high it went.  It's healthy for the market to have some correction and build the base for more upside. Otherwise it will go nowhere like last few months. So anyone bullish should really be happy to see more downside coming in next few weeks.

Bond prices have big rally with interest rates down following equity's selloff.  Rates has room to go down a little bit more from here. I am still neutral on it, and don't have strong view for the direction after that.

Equity bounces back from the sale-off earlier this month with both S&P 500 and Dow in new high. 

Last Tuesday's sale-off only last about 1 hour before everything rebound quickly.  I think earlier this month the market is oversold enough to lead to rally in short term.  Now the equity market quickly becomes overbought, with S&P 500  at 2130/2140, which is my original target, and it's also the area I will turn extremely cautious.  I still think the market will correct  about 5% to 2040/2050, possibly by the middle of June.  

 

For this week, I don't expect too much movement in either direction. S&P500 might be able to touch 2140 before turning down. Normally it stays at the top for several days with very narrow range. Possibly bigger downside will not happen until next week.  So July puts might be a better choice now.

I still think equity market will have more downside even with Friday's big rally following job reports.    
But this correction is not that deep, only 3% to 5%.  So downside for S&P 500 is around 2040-2050, that's only 50 -60 points away from Monday's close.  It's nothing meaningful compared to how high it went from last October's low.   But with almost half year's sideway action for equity, that's enough shakeout to build the base for strong uptrend in later summer to early Fall.

Bonds continue the sale-off after last Thursday and Friday's brief bounce.  In short term,  bond price can bounce again from here, which means rates will pullback a little bit.   For long term I am neutral on it, and wait to see how it develops.

Crude oil has been up after dropping to lower 40's.  I think the low around $42/barrel might be set for this crash.  I don't see it will go back to above $70 /barrel quickly. The most it can do is range bound between 50 to middle 60's.

Equity finally will have the long waited 5% correction at this time.  If you are quick you might be able to catch 30 points upside for S&P 500, but any bounce will be sold. I expect S&P 500 will pull back after the temporary bounce to 2030-2040 in next few weeks, and any pullback close to 2000 will be good enough shakeout for long term entry buying points.  This correction may last longer than a few weeks, possibly one month or two.  After that it will continue the uptrend.

Interest rates are up very quickly last few weeks, and this sale off in bonds is too extreme in short term.  I expect rates will come down a little bit next few days especially when equity undergoes some correction.