Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Equity has been up almost one month by now, and it looks a little bit tired and need some rest at this time.  There are still some stocks ready to catch up with the major indexes.

My best pick for now is Yelp.  It's still hanging around multi month lows, and has been building base in February.  It's ready to go up in next few weeks.  If you don't have a lot of money, you can still buy yelp April  call option with strike price 49, 50 or 52.5 for only a few hundred dollars.  You will at least double the money before April.

Don't worry about your small investment account, even with only $200, following my option recommendation, it will go to at least $1000 in a few months.

Both 10y and 30y treasury yield has pull back to my target.  At this time I will watch closely to find out next trade.  I still lean towards rate goes up more in next few months.


Sunday, February 22, 2015

Last week all the major equity indexes has been in consolidation process as I expected, but the range is much more narrow except Friday's slightly bigger movement.  I expect this week S&P 500 will trade in the range of 2090 to 2120-2130.  With S&P500 finally break above 2100, it still has momentum to get to 2120-2130 before short term pullback to slightly below 2100.  So for myself,  I will short ES when it initially goes up to 2120 and buy it back with 15 to 20 points profit.  Since long term trend is still up, this is only a trade.  For anyone with long term horizon, short side is still a losing game. I will buy S&P 500 pullback to below 2100.

My pick for Facebook FB stock finally pays off this week, with Fb closes to 80 and market is at all time high, there is no reason to sale FB at this time. My short term target is 90, and possibly it will go to 100 or beyond.

For treasury, it's almost the same like what I expected with similar movement as equity. Now both 10y and 30y bonds are oversold in the short term basis. I expect 10y yield will pull back to 2% from 2.13%, and 30y yield pullback to 2.6-2.65% short term.  I don't have long term view on rates, it can go lower further or it can also go higher after the initial pullback. So after this week's trade on ZN and ZB, I will stay out of bonds for a while or closely watch it before the next idea.

The whole market is much more quiet compared to January. I will update more if there is more volatility during the week, or if I can find more stock pick.

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Last week, all equity indexes get closer to all time high.  With two weeks' strong upside movement in major indexes, we could see some consolidation this week.  I predict S&P 500 can have the range between 2075-2080 to 2010-2020. Since it's still in uptrend, so dip buying is still a good strategy.

For interest rate, we see overnight bonds sale off sharpely, with 30 year bond future is almost 1 point below Friday's close price. It's the same as equity index, bonds sell off should also slow down this week, with some consolidation.  It's ok to try long bond trades for quick flip.

It's good for swing trader this week in both equity index future and bond future, but not a good time for directional option trades only if you can be quick and nibble.  For stocks, long trades are still fine since the uptrend can last a few months even indexes consolidate for a few weeks.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

This week, all equity major indexes are still up, but not as strong as before. I expect this may last for a few weeks. Since the trend is still up, so any pullback is buying opportunity, but you have to take profit constantly if you can.

Several choices of stock and options for long trade are FB and GOOG.

Saturday, February 7, 2015

This week my earlier prediction has been right in all the financial sectors.  US equity up, interest rate rebounds, and oil bounces but not higher than 55 dollar/barrel.  Euro/USD up earlier and down Friday with employment report.

Russel 2000 outperform this week. If you bought iwm April 123 call at 1.5 Monday,  Friday's price is 2.3.  That's 53% gain in one week.

Next week, my prediction is still almost the same as before. Equity still has upside biases, but it will not go up as strong as the first week of February.  Any pullback in equity is buying opportunity.
With Nasdaq down a little bit Friday.  My suggestion is to buy qqq call,  NQ future around 4210.

Monday, February 2, 2015

Daily and weekly trading ideas

Equity market rebounds from the pullback last week.

Russell 2000 small cap index is lagging a little bit today. Buy iwm, and hold a few months.
Or buy iwm April 123 call at 1.5.