Monday, June 29, 2015

Great, this is exactly the kind of action I have been looking for since the start of June, and finally the equity market has some volatility.  I don't care if it's because Greece or anything else,  the price action, the indicator tell me that market need to go down, so I stick with my own analysis to short the market and buy puts with every bounce last week.

It's a good day with great profit, and all of my accounts go to new high.   I put some fresh money in earlier June, and it's up more than 50% in one month.  One of my biggest clients is up more than 15% today.  Now I covered all of my index future shorts,  index puts and several individual stocks puts. It's time to look for another idea.

Market is getting closer to be oversold by now, and some kind of bounce will kick in next few days.
I will use range 2050/2060 to 2090/2100 for S&P 500 next few days . I did some buying at the end of day today, and will try to add more if it's down open tomorrow.  It may take a little longer for index to finally bottomed out. But there will be some great volatility for trade next few weeks.  At the same time I will try to work on some long list for individual stocks.  Market finally come to the level I feel comfortable to add more long exposure.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

The bounce from last week is stronger than what I had expected.  And now I still think equity will pullback later this week. This time maybe we finally get some more serious correction, with S&P 500 down to 2040. It may also last longer than three or five days.
Market needs the final washout to change leadership,  build the base for next powerful rally. I still think it will happen.




Monday, June 15, 2015

Last week S&P 500 traded in the range of 2070 to 2110.  I expect the same for equity this week.  S&P 500 is oversold enough to have another bounce now.   I have the same view as before, if it goes to 2100-2110, it will be another opportunity to short against.  I still expect the final downside target around 2040/2050, but it probably won't happen until next week. So for now, I will wait for the  bounce to play out.

The saleoff since middle May is so shallow, and equity just can't sell. So as long as the downside target meet, it will be really good buying opportunity for a few months.


Tuesday, June 9, 2015

S&P 500 finally broke down to 2070 range today. The selling is so slow last few days, and equity index is already getting oversold.  It looks like it will be ready for some short term oversold bounce.  I am not expect too much movement in either direction. If S&P500 can bounce to 2095/2105, it will be another short opportunity.

I still keep S&P 500 downside target around 2040/2050.  If it can't get there this week, it will get there later June. I won't turn bullish until I see this price.  The standard way is to have some panic selling to build the base, and then big rally can gain momentum.  If there is no more selling, the upside will be very limited.

Monday, June 1, 2015

Even equity index kept bouncing back and forth last week,  I still have the same view as before. The final 5% correction will start this week, and last about three weeks or more.  My downside target is 2070 for S&P 500 this week, and 2040/2050 in the middle of June,  possibly down to 2000 if the correction gets deeper.   There will be a lot of volatility in next few weeks, and it also means a lot of opportunity.  Finally it's the time to make some big money, and It's the time to turn your $200 into $1000 in a few weeks.  So buy equity puts will pay off next few weeks.  Try spy, QQQ July or June puts, and wait for the real sale-off in one or two weeks.

Now there is a great setup for several trades.  If you catch it you can make a small fortune. This kind of opportunity doesn't happen very often, and the courage to ride the whole trade is even less.  For now I keep it to myself, and won't reveal it for free.  I will post it next few weeks when it plays out.