Sunday, March 29, 2015

This is one of the best opportunity I have been looking for a while with both equity and treasury.  Equity pulled back last week, and this is the last time S&P 500 will stay around 2060 area for this year. It will go up very quickly to 2200 next few months and possibly even much higher later. Even I am very bearish about equity in latter part of this year, now the way to make money is still long equity, options and futures if you can.

My pick for stock now come to YELP, and at this time, the timing is also perfect for more upside. So go long yelp May or April call options, and wait for at least one week. It's heading towards 52 in short term, and much higher after a few more months.

Interest rates pull back to closer to earlier February low,  and it will go up quickly in next few months. So short bond, bond futures, and buy puts on TLT. With Friday's employment report,  it's possible for rates to have one more dip with bad employment number.  If it happens, that's good time to short bonds.

This week will be the time to turn $200 into $400, or $600 in a few more weeks. I hope someone can really follows my suggestion of long equity and short treasury at this time.   You will not see this prices for a long time, just as you will not see FB under $80 for a long time.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Equity has been up sharply last week, and now it will digest the gain for a few more days. I expect it's going to have some small pullback this week probably to 2080 area.  If it gets there, it will be another good buying opportunity.

10 year yield fall back to 1.91%, and 30y yield is down to 2.5%.  I think the next move in rates should be up, it might stay in this range for a little bit longer, but downside rates movement should be limited by now. I will try to short a few bond futures contract for some quick profit.

Euro also has sharp bounce last week. It should has some pullback this week, or possibly even retest 1.6 area before finally going up.

Yelp has been in range bound for two months, and it might finally be ready to move up.  This week if it has some pullback it should be good to enter long option trade.  If you miss Facebook FB I recommended in middle March, you might be able to catch similar upside with yelp in next few weeks.

Monday, March 16, 2015

Equity market should be able to have some follow through after today's bounce from oversold last week. I except it will be range bound for another week or so before finally moving up at the end of March and earlier April.  So any pullback to below 2060 for S&P500 should be good buying opportunities. You might be able to get one more entry around that area next week. The big set up for profitable trade might be later next week. I will closely monitor the market to confirm my idea.

Euro finally has a little bit bounce from the sharp selloff of earlier March.  A lot of people will watch for par price, but I don't think it will get there at this time.  I expect Euro will also have another week or two's range bound, before moving higher. 

Crude oil drops to lower low today, and it's still in down trend. It's possible to break $40/barrel next few weeks. 

Monday, March 9, 2015

The market is digesting February's gain by pulling back slightly last week. This sideways action may last another week or two,  after that equity market will continue to new high. So this pullback is a good buying opportunity.  For S&P500, I will use the range 2065 to 2095/2100 this week, it's good to buy anywhere when it's under 2070.

Facebook FB is doing the same with sideways, buy FB April or May call option on any pullback. Taking quick profit on April call, and it's ok to hold May call slightly longer.

Euro drops to more than one decade low. It seems that it can't have any meaning bounce at this time. Wait for a few more weeks to see where it will go.

From Middle February to current,  the equity market has been in the same range for almost one month. It will break out this range eventually. When I see more clear signal next week or two,
I will have better ideas.  For now I am waiting for the setup for next big winner.

Monday, March 2, 2015

After a few day's consolidation for the equity, S&P 500 is ready to go up to new high again.  Next few weeks it's going to be the same as the past two weeks, equity will gradually go up.

Euro drops to more than 10 year low now, it's very oversold at this point.  With ECB meeting this Thursday and employment report Friday, it might have big movement at that time. I lean towards upside. I will use a few hundred dollars to buy Euro future options close to Thursday to see if I can win after that.

Yelp has stayed in the same range for several weeks. Even though I still think it should go up, I also won't rule out the odds of going sharp down. So I will try to close most of my yelp call options entered last week with 10% gain next few days, and only leave a few contracts to catch more upside if it will happen. In case it's going down I won't lose money for it.  When it's indecisive for more than 2 weeks, next movement can be big either ways.