Sunday, February 22, 2015

Last week all the major equity indexes has been in consolidation process as I expected, but the range is much more narrow except Friday's slightly bigger movement.  I expect this week S&P 500 will trade in the range of 2090 to 2120-2130.  With S&P500 finally break above 2100, it still has momentum to get to 2120-2130 before short term pullback to slightly below 2100.  So for myself,  I will short ES when it initially goes up to 2120 and buy it back with 15 to 20 points profit.  Since long term trend is still up, this is only a trade.  For anyone with long term horizon, short side is still a losing game. I will buy S&P 500 pullback to below 2100.

My pick for Facebook FB stock finally pays off this week, with Fb closes to 80 and market is at all time high, there is no reason to sale FB at this time. My short term target is 90, and possibly it will go to 100 or beyond.

For treasury, it's almost the same like what I expected with similar movement as equity. Now both 10y and 30y bonds are oversold in the short term basis. I expect 10y yield will pull back to 2% from 2.13%, and 30y yield pullback to 2.6-2.65% short term.  I don't have long term view on rates, it can go lower further or it can also go higher after the initial pullback. So after this week's trade on ZN and ZB, I will stay out of bonds for a while or closely watch it before the next idea.

The whole market is much more quiet compared to January. I will update more if there is more volatility during the week, or if I can find more stock pick.

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