Monday, August 3, 2015

All the action later last week confirmed my intuition that last week's bounce can't be trusted, and next downside action starts again this week. I expect this downside will be stronger than the one in later June/earlier July, and it could last two to three weeks. The best case downside target for S&P 500 is around 2010/2030, and it can drop more than 200 points if it's deeper correction.  There could be some bounces in between, but the strategy will be shorting every bounce for next few weeks.

Crude oil can't hold to $50, and for now I can't see how low it can go, could be below $40.  Interest rate will start to go down again with bond price up. Dollar will strength again with a short pullback last week. And gold finally come down to multi year low.  Equity market is the area I have the best edge and more easier to master. I am very excited to see how the next pullback will play out finally, or it could also mean another great buying opportunity before anyone can see it.

It's going to be fun and volatile month, and I love this kind of action which means a lot of trading opportunity and a lot of money could be made.

There are more bearish view now than before, from contrarian point of view, it could mean other way. I am a little bit hesitate now than earlier today.

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